Yini esiyilindele eminyakeni engu-25 ezayo: ukubikezela kwamathamistri adumile

USteve Jobs ngesikhathi esisodwa ekhulumisana naye uvume ukuthi "uyathemba abazongena esikhathini esizayo nababikezela isikhathi eside kunabathengisi bemakethe." Indlela umhlaba obonakala ngayo eminyakeni engama-25 nangaphezulu kwe-forecaster eyaziwayo emkhakheni wokuqhubekela phambili kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nesayensi, isayithi

Ray Kurzweil

I-futurist yaseMelika isiye yaziwa emhlabeni ngenxa yokubikezela kwayo okunembile okusekelwe ezithambekweni zakamuva zesayensi nobuchwepheshe. Le "midlalo yezobuchwepheshe" ayibonanga nje "ukuthunjwa" kwezwe ngamathebula weselula, imishini yefeksi, i-robotics ne-Inthanethi, kodwa futhi yabikezela ukuwa kwe-USSR nokuhluleka kohulumeni bezigunyazo kolwazi lomhlaba jikelele. Namuhla, izibikezelo zakhe zekusasa ziyamangalisa nakakhulu. Ubona inqubekela phambili yesayensi nezobuchwepheshe ngokulandelayo:
  1. Imithombo yamandla. Eminyakeni embalwa eyalandela, amandla alanga azothatha isikhundla samafutha namafutha. Ngokwezibikezelo zikaKarzweil, izindleko eziphansi ze-watt yelanga zizokhipha kancane kancane amafutha, igesi namalahle abizayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okukhanya kwelanga kuzokwenza kungabi nzuzo ukusebenzisa izitshalo zamandla.
Izindlu, ezinamapaneli enelanga, ziyoba namandla-ngokwanele. Amadivayisi amaningi namadivaysi ezobuchwepheshe angadliwa kusukela elangeni noma eminye imithombo yamandla angaphandle, engokwemvelo futhi emele izici zangaphandle nezinkomba. Lesi sibikezelo esihle esivela kuRay Kurzweil singaba ngokoqobo ngasekupheleni kuka-2020.

  1. Imithi. Ishumi leminyaka elisha lizoguqula imithi. Odokotela "abakhulu" bazoba nanorobots, abanamakhono amakhulu. Siza ukuthi bazokwazi "ukuhlala unomphela", "baphile" emzimbeni womuntu. Ekusebenzeni kwabo kuyoba imisebenzi yokuletha ukudla kumaseli nokukhipha izinto eziyingozi ngaphambi kokutadisha umsebenzi wobuchopho. Sekuyiminyaka eyishumi bayofunda ukuqapha impilo yabantu, ukuhamba ngesikebhe segazi, nokuvimbela izingozi zezifo ezinzima. I-Kurzweil ilungiselela isintu ukuthi esikhathini esizayo zonke izifo ziyophela futhi ukuhlala isikhathi eside kuyoba yinto evamile empucuko.
Nakuba inkathi yokuphila isikhathi eside ibonakala iyinhle kwabaningi, kukhulu kunanamuhla. Odokotela baseYurophu bakhuluma ngesizukulwane esisha, lapho kunezingane ezinamandla amakhulu. Banamathuba okuhlala nomqondo ozwakalayo, inkumbulo nempilo yangempela kuze kube ngu-150. Ososayensi bezokwelapha bathi laba bantu eminyakeni engu-90 bazoba nabantu "abaneminyaka eminyaka" abaneminyaka engu-40 ubudala.

  1. Ubuchopho. Ngomnyaka ka-2030, umkhawulo phakathi kwekhompiyutha kanye nomuntu uzobonakala kancane. Ikhompiyutha yomuntu siqu iyoba into efana nomsizi ongenamuntu ongenamaphilo, ukuxhumana okuzokwenzeka ngokusebenzisa inkulumo kanye nokuthinta. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uRay Kurzweil uyaqiniseka ukuthi ukucabanga okuningi komuntu kuzophela "kube yizinto eziphilayo." Ubuchopho buzothola amathuba e-hard disk - ulwazi olulahlekile ngokusebenzisa amnesia noma izinguquko ezihlobene nobudala lungabuyiselwa kalula ngokulayisha ulwazi olulahlekile enhloko.
  2. Intelligence yokufakelwa. Ngomnyaka we-2040, ukuhlakanipha okungewona kwezinto eziphilayo kuyoba namandla kangangokuthi ukucabanga kwemvelo komuntu kuyolahlekelwa yizo zonke izinzuzo phezu kwe-robotics. Kusukela kumakhaya abasizi bomshini abahlakaniphile bazohamba kuzo zonke izindawo zokuphila. Isibonelo, bazoba abaphathi abagcwele bezokuthutha kanye nezolimo. I-nanotechnology izophuma emgwaqeni omkhulu futhi ingabandakanyi ingozi yokushayela izimoto ngabantu emigwaqweni emikhulu, futhi imikhiqizo yokudla izokwenziwa kusukela emoyeni omncane, kodwa, njengawo wonke into.

  1. Nanosystems. U-Ray Kurzweil emisebenzini yakhe yesayensi ubonisa umbono wokuthi ingqondo yokufakelwa izohlangana nomuntu ngosizo lokusungula isimo, futhi ekupheleni kwezinhlelo zezinkulungwane ze-XXI zekhulu leminyaka kuzoba yingxenye enkulu ebantwini bomhlaba. Yiqiniso, kukhona nalabo abafuni ukubhoboza umzimba wabo, kodwa bona, njengezicabha ezingavamile zezinto eziphilayo, kuyoba sekupheleni kokuqothulwa. Futhi uma unenhlanhla, ama-robot azowafaka eBhuku eliBomvu eliBomvu, futhi kuzoba yiyo yonke indlela yokuziphakamisa, njengesibonelo 'sobuNkulunkulu' owababelethela. Kodwa mhlawumbe hhayi lucky ...

Ukubikezela okuthakazelisayo kwesikhathi esizayo esikude kubangomuso

UJan Pearson, i-Futurist, iNhloko ye-Futurizon (UK)

"Ngo-2050, ubuchwepheshe bekhompyutha buzofinyelela ezingeni eliphakeme kangangokuthi ukuqonda komuntu kungadluliselwa ngokuphelele kumshini we-computer. Ngesikhathi umuntu efa, i-apparatus ekhethekile izoskena ubuchopho bomuntu ofayo, aphinde abhale phansi amandla akhethekile kagesi we-neurons ebuchosheni bakhe ku-model ye-neurons kwikhompyutha. Ngenxa yalokhu "ukuguqula", umuntu, engaqapheli isikhathi sokufa, uzohamba ngokuqondile eqinisweni, lapho angaphila khona kuze kube phakade. "

Richard Watson, futurist (Great Britain)

"Ubuchwepheshe buzosheshisa ukwanda kobudlova. Lindela ukufika kwama-smart bullets angalungiswa ngesithombe esithile. Futhi izigebengu, kanye nezisulu ngo-2050 kuzoba khona ngesikhathi se-intanethi ye-web 4.0. "

UJuan Enrique, futurist, umqondisi wenkampani Biotechnomy (USA)

"Ngaphansi kwethonya lezinsizakalo ze-inthanethi, i-plasticity entsha yobuchopho ibonakala. Ukugeleza kwemininingwane enkulu, ukuphindaphinda kwayo emithonjeni ehlukene, iziteshi ezahlukene zokufinyelela kuwo - konke lokhu akuvumeli ukuba likhohlwe. Ezingeni elingaqondakali, noma yiluphi ulwazi luhlala nathi. Ukungabikho kokungaqapheli nokugeleza okukhulu kolwazi kuzoshintsha izakhiwo zobuchopho: "kungaba" ukucubungula "imisebenzi engaphezu kwesigidi ngaphezulu kunamanje. Ngakho-ke i-Intanethi iqala ukusilawula kanye namakhono ethu, futhi asiyena i-intanethi. "

Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, i-futurologist, isazi sezenhlalo (eRussia)

"Kuyoba khona uhlelo lwekhompiyutha ukuthi, kusukela ebuntwaneni, mhlawumbe ngisho nangaphambi kokuzalwa kwengane, izohlelwa ngumuntu we-choleric noma wesangu, i-brunette enamehlo aluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka noma izinwele ezimhlophe ngokuphakama kwamamitha ayisishiyagalombili. Umuntu uzoyeka ukuba ngumuntu, angene kwesinye isigaba. Kulesi sigaba, umuntu uzoba yisitha kuye. "