Ukuze umnotho waseRussia, izindleko zamafutha zibaluleke kakhulu. Kungenxa yokunyuka okuthe xaxa kwamanani ama-hydrocarboni ekuqaleni kwezinkulungwane ezimbili, eminyakeni eyi-15 edlule leli zwe liye laba yisikhathi sokuchuma kwezomnotho. Ngakho-ke, ukwehla okuqinile kwamaxabiso kawoyela kunesithakazelo namuhla hhayi ezomnotho kuphela, kodwa futhi namaRussia ajwayelekile. Kungani inani lamafutha liwa, lizohlala isikhathi esingakanani, futhi yini esilindele? Le mibuzo izwakala cishe kuyo yonke indlu. Ake sizame ukuqonda izimbangela nemiphumela engenzeka yalesi simo.
Kungani amafutha engabizi futhi kungani kuncike
Izindleko zamafutha zikhonjiswe ekuthenganeni kwempahla yezinto zokusetshenziswa zamazwe ahlukene. Ngakho-ke, intengo yomkhiqizo ayikwakhiwa nje kuphela kulesilinganiso sokunikezwa kanye nesidingo esisebenzayo, kodwa futhi kusukela ekucutsheni okucatshangelwayo. Kungenxa yalesi sizathu ukuthi intengo yamafutha kunzima kakhulu ukubikezela. Inani lale mkhiqizo libhekwa ngokuphakama kwe-dizzying futhi okusheshayo, cishe, kuwela.
Kungani amanani amafutha ewela namuhla?
Ukunciphisa okukhulu kwezindleko zamafutha ngo-2014 kungenxa yokuthi:
- Ukuwa okudinga kulo mkhiqizo ngenxa yokwehla kwezinga lokukhiqizwa kwempahla emhlabeni. Yebo. ukukhiqizwa kwezimpahla kuyawa, futhi ukufunwa kwamandla okuhambisa amandla, kuhlanganise namafutha, kubuye futhi. Ngenxa yalokho, intengo yamafutha iwa.
- Ukukhula kokuhlinzekwa nge-background of falling demand. Eminyakeni yamuva, omunye umdlali omkhulu uvele emakethe - i-US. Ngokwezibikezelo, ngonyaka ozayo izinga lokukhiqizwa kwaleli zwe lizolingana nomthamo wokukhiqizwa komthengisi omkhulu kunazo zonke - i-Saudi Arabia. Ngenxa yalokho, esikhundleni somthengi, i-US isibe ngumkhiqizi omkhulu. Ngaphandle kwamafutha e-oli, amafutha ase-Iranian angase avele emakethe, njengoba kuhlongozwa izigwegwe ezivela e-Iran, eyashunyayelwa esidlangalaleni. Kodwa-ke, ngenkathi izwe lingasenalo ithuba lokuthengisa izinto zalo eziwusizo ekushintsheni, kodwa imakethe isivele isinele lezindaba.
Ngalolu daba, abathengisi abathengisa amafutha esizayo bayalindela izenzo ze-OPEC (i-cartel ihlanganisa abakhiqizi abakhulu kunazo zonke) okuhloswe ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa. Kodwa wonke umhlangano omusha uletha ukudumala. I-cartel ayinqumi ukukhiqizwa, ngoba iningi labahlanganyeli bayo i-hydrocarbons iyinhloko esemqoka yokugcwaliswa kwesabelomali. I-Saudi Arabia kungenzeka ukuthi imise ukukhiqizwa, kodwa izwe lizimisele ukugcina imakethe yalo yangaphambili yokudayisa ngezimo ezintsha nazo zonke izikhwepha zayo. Ukulahlekelwa kwamanje akubalulekile kangako kunezabelo zemakethe. I-Russia ayinciphisi ukukhiqizwa.
Ngakho-ke, kungani amafutha eshibhile manje, kodwa kungenzeka ukuthi ulindele ukwanda kwamanani futhi nini? Izinto zangempela zifana nokuthi intengo ephansi yamafutha ingahlala iminyaka eminingi. Ake sikhumbule ngasekupheleni kweminyaka engu-80 neshumi leminyaka yama-90. Kodwa kubalulekile yini ukwesaba kulezi zimo? Sithi: cha. Sekuyiminyaka engu-15 eRussia ngemali evela ekuthengisweni kwamafutha, kuningi okwenziwe ukwenza leli zwe lixhomeke kancane ezintweni zamandla. Asixhomeke kakhulu ekuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, okungabonakala kunoma iyiphi isitolo. Ngemuva kokuhlukunyezwa kuka-98, lapho i-ruble ihlaziywe ngamaphesenti angu-300, amanani ezitolo akhula kathathu. Manje lokhu akukwenzeki, okukhuluma ngokuzinza komnotho. Yiqiniso, ngesikhathi sokuguqula ngeke kube lula, kodwa sinakho konke okumele sikwazi ukuhlangabezana nokuhlangana komnotho okungalungile.
Futhi uzoba nesithakazelo kuzihloko: